prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 6 Baltimore 20 28.8, 29 Cleveland 10 12.6
91% 4 Denver 47 36.4, 30 Oakland 14 17.9
86% 3 Seattle 20 27.5, 23 St. Louis 6 14.3
82% 21 Houston 23 27.3, 31 Jacksonville 17 14.9
79% 2 Green Bay 30 29.4, 13 Detroit 20 19.1
75% 5 Dallas 44 30.8, 27 Washington 17 21.0
73% 16 Minnesota 13 29.1, 25 Chicago 9 21.1
64% 8 Kansas City 19 25.9, 11 San Diego 7 20.0
63% 7 Pittsburgh 27 26.9, 9 Cincinnati 17 22.6
62% 14 Indianapolis 27 27.8, 32 Tennessee 10 21.5
60% 12 New Orleans 23 24.3, 28 Tampa Bay 20 21.7
59% 18 San Francisco 20 21.0, 22 Arizona 17 17.1
37% 10 Philadelphia 34 26.9, 17 New York Giants 26 28.7
34% 24 Carolina 34 21.2, 19 Atlanta 3 26.7
28% 26 New York Jets 37 16.9, 15 Miami 24 25.8
8% 20 Buffalo 17 15.1, 1 New England 9 31.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 6 1.06 4 1.00 2 1.20 3 0.73 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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