prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 4 Seattle 31 26.4, 17 Carolina 17 15.4
78% 1 New England 35 28.7, 6 Baltimore 31 20.2
65% 2 Green Bay 26 31.3, 5 Dallas 21 26.1
23% 12 Indianapolis 24 24.7, 3 Denver 13 33.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.53 2 0.65 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 3.0 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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