prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 13 Carolina 24 25.5, 27 Houston 17 16.0
63% 9 Arizona 48 24.3, 26 Chicago 23 21.5
61% 3 Cincinnati 24 23.9, 17 San Diego 19 17.7
60% 24 Minnesota 26 27.3, 21 Detroit 16 25.2
60% 5 Green Bay 27 33.7, 19 Seattle 17 24.5
59% 14 Dallas 20 31.3, 22 Philadelphia 10 29.5
56% 15 Pittsburgh 43 16.3, 2 San Francisco 18 14.9
55% 1 New England 40 18.9, 8 Buffalo 32 18.1
54% 12 New York Jets 20 21.6, 25 Indianapolis 7 20.7
49% 18 Atlanta 24 25.1, 20 New York Giants 20 25.2
40% 32 Tampa Bay 26 28.9, 23 New Orleans 19 45.7
40% 30 Cleveland 28 13.3, 4 Tennessee 14 26.8
39% 29 Jacksonville 23 12.5, 10 Miami 20 20.8
39% 28 Washington 24 21.0, 16 St. Louis 10 27.9
38% 31 Oakland 37 20.7, 11 Baltimore 33 31.5
37% 6 Denver 31 16.4, 7 Kansas City 24 20.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.45 11 0.74 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.5 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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