prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 4 New England 51 36.4, 29 Jacksonville 17 16.2
77% 9 Seattle 26 42.8, 32 Chicago 0 24.6
72% 2 Green Bay 38 26.2, 10 Kansas City 28 15.9
63% 1 Arizona 47 27.6, 18 San Francisco 7 12.6
62% 24 New York Giants 32 23.9, 23 Washington 21 20.8
62% 5 Denver 24 25.5, 19 Detroit 12 20.8
61% 26 Houston 19 32.3, 31 Tampa Bay 9 24.1
61% 12 Carolina 27 28.7, 25 New Orleans 22 22.3
61% 3 Pittsburgh 12 25.2, 22 St. Louis 6 19.6
58% 20 Minnesota 31 26.0, 15 San Diego 14 25.1
48% 8 Cincinnati 28 22.9, 16 Baltimore 24 23.4
38% 30 Oakland 27 24.2, 27 Cleveland 20 28.2
38% 21 Philadelphia 24 16.6, 7 New York Jets 17 23.4
38% 11 Buffalo 41 16.7, 13 Miami 14 18.7
36% 14 Atlanta 39 15.8, 6 Dallas 28 24.7
35% 28 Indianapolis 35 19.0, 17 Tennessee 33 29.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 11 0.88 2 1.34 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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