prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 8 Atlanta 25 30.0, 23 Washington 19 16.6
85% 2 Green Bay 24 31.1, 22 St. Louis 10 13.7
66% 7 Denver 16 28.3, 27 Oakland 10 18.8
64% 12 New York Giants 30 26.8, 24 San Francisco 27 17.9
61% 32 Tampa Bay 38 24.2, 31 Jacksonville 31 20.8
61% 15 Philadelphia 39 30.4, 21 New Orleans 17 25.4
61% 5 Pittsburgh 24 26.1, 18 San Diego 20 22.6
61% 1 New England 30 31.3, 14 Dallas 6 24.2
60% 6 Cincinnati 27 20.1, 3 Seattle 24 16.2
60% 4 Arizona 42 23.4, 20 Detroit 17 17.9
41% 26 Indianapolis 27 25.6, 28 Houston 20 26.8
38% 17 Buffalo 14 19.9, 19 Tennessee 13 23.2
25% 30 Chicago 18 22.8, 16 Kansas City 17 35.2
18% 29 Cleveland 33 18.9, 11 Baltimore 30 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 9 1.44 1 0.00 3 0.79 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.4 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net