prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 New England 27 38.8, 26 Washington 10 14.9
85% 6 Pittsburgh 38 29.0, 25 Oakland 35 15.4
85% 4 Cincinnati 31 34.0, 31 Cleveland 10 15.3
80% 17 New York Jets 28 28.4, 32 Jacksonville 23 17.8
64% 9 Minnesota 21 21.5, 13 St. Louis 18 13.1
62% 22 Buffalo 33 23.0, 19 Miami 17 21.4
60% 15 New York Giants 32 28.8, 30 Tampa Bay 18 24.0
50% 11 Philadelphia 33 23.0, 16 Dallas 27 23.0
46% 8 Carolina 37 22.5, 3 Green Bay 29 22.9
39% 21 San Francisco 17 21.6, 12 Atlanta 16 23.8
38% 23 Indianapolis 27 21.9, 2 Denver 24 28.9
37% 24 Chicago 22 23.7, 20 San Diego 19 30.2
23% 27 Tennessee 34 19.9, 18 New Orleans 28 30.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 5 0.64 2 0.64 3 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 7 8.9 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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