prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Seattle 29 25.7, 19 San Francisco 13 13.7
85% 1 New England 20 35.0, 21 Buffalo 13 15.5
83% 8 Carolina 44 28.6, 24 Washington 16 17.3
65% 16 Baltimore 16 24.6, 17 St. Louis 13 17.7
61% 31 Jacksonville 19 24.4, 27 Tennessee 13 21.3
61% 7 Kansas City 33 25.2, 22 San Diego 3 22.4
61% 4 Denver 17 24.3, 15 Chicago 15 22.5
60% 28 Detroit 18 27.7, 29 Oakland 13 24.1
60% 5 Arizona 34 26.1, 6 Cincinnati 31 20.0
59% 26 Houston 24 23.4, 20 New York Jets 17 22.4
39% 9 Green Bay 30 22.2, 10 Minnesota 13 24.1
37% 18 Dallas 24 17.8, 13 Miami 14 23.7
25% 23 Indianapolis 24 21.1, 12 Atlanta 21 29.8
18% 30 Tampa Bay 45 17.7, 11 Philadelphia 17 30.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.68 7 1.16 1 0.00 4 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.6 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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