prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 9 Cincinnati 31 24.9, 16 St. Louis 7 14.4
82% 3 Kansas City 30 26.0, 21 Buffalo 22 14.4
68% 20 Indianapolis 25 27.5, 25 Tampa Bay 12 20.6
65% 15 Baltimore 33 27.3, 32 Cleveland 27 21.6
62% 2 Seattle 39 22.4, 4 Pittsburgh 30 18.8
61% 26 Houston 24 29.5, 24 New Orleans 6 26.9
61% 22 New York Jets 38 22.7, 17 Miami 20 21.2
61% 7 Carolina 33 22.5, 12 Dallas 14 20.6
60% 8 Arizona 19 25.8, 19 San Francisco 13 20.7
46% 23 San Diego 31 26.2, 31 Jacksonville 25 26.8
41% 28 Detroit 45 24.0, 18 Philadelphia 14 25.0
40% 30 Oakland 24 21.3, 29 Tennessee 21 24.6
40% 27 Washington 20 24.7, 14 New York Giants 14 27.6
39% 10 Minnesota 20 21.5, 11 Atlanta 10 23.2
38% 6 Denver 30 23.3, 1 New England 24 27.7
23% 13 Chicago 17 18.9, 5 Green Bay 13 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 11 1.03 1 0.00 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.4 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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