prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 9 Pittsburgh 45 29.3, 16 Indianapolis 10 19.5
75% 6 Cincinnati 37 29.5, 32 Cleveland 3 18.5
68% 4 Kansas City 34 27.4, 30 Oakland 20 19.4
61% 17 Miami 15 24.0, 12 Baltimore 13 22.5
61% 7 Green Bay 27 26.7, 24 Detroit 23 21.9
60% 29 Tennessee 42 24.2, 31 Jacksonville 39 20.3
60% 21 Buffalo 30 23.8, 22 Houston 21 19.7
60% 8 Arizona 27 25.0, 18 St. Louis 3 19.0
60% 5 Carolina 41 31.3, 28 New Orleans 38 24.5
60% 3 Denver 17 28.2, 23 San Diego 3 23.2
46% 15 Dallas 19 22.0, 27 Washington 16 22.7
39% 26 Tampa Bay 23 22.5, 13 Atlanta 19 23.9
39% 2 Seattle 38 19.0, 10 Minnesota 7 21.1
36% 20 New York Jets 23 21.2, 14 New York Giants 20 27.4
36% 19 San Francisco 26 16.6, 11 Chicago 20 24.0
15% 25 Philadelphia 35 17.9, 1 New England 28 36.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.36 8 0.80 2 1.29 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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