prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 9 Green Bay 28 28.5, 14 Dallas 7 17.5
77% 1 New England 27 30.1, 24 Houston 6 20.0
74% 6 Kansas City 10 30.0, 25 San Diego 3 17.3
72% 7 Arizona 23 28.4, 10 Minnesota 20 18.6
67% 15 New York Jets 30 25.5, 29 Tennessee 8 17.2
64% 5 Carolina 38 28.4, 13 Atlanta 0 18.8
61% 19 Philadelphia 23 27.2, 22 Buffalo 20 22.0
61% 2 Seattle 35 23.4, 11 Baltimore 6 20.7
60% 21 St. Louis 21 21.7, 23 Detroit 14 18.5
40% 28 New Orleans 24 25.3, 26 Tampa Bay 17 29.3
40% 8 Pittsburgh 33 20.8, 4 Cincinnati 20 24.6
39% 32 Cleveland 24 20.6, 17 San Francisco 10 24.4
39% 31 Jacksonville 51 25.3, 20 Indianapolis 16 26.6
39% 18 New York Giants 31 22.8, 16 Miami 24 25.2
33% 27 Washington 24 18.8, 12 Chicago 21 26.6
14% 30 Oakland 15 16.4, 3 Denver 12 32.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 9 0.89 4 1.32 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.7 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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