prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 3 Kansas City 17 32.6, 32 Cleveland 13 13.0
71% 10 Minnesota 49 28.1, 15 New York Giants 17 21.7
62% 17 Detroit 32 22.8, 18 San Francisco 17 17.9
61% 7 Arizona 38 27.7, 5 Green Bay 8 22.5
60% 28 New Orleans 38 31.4, 31 Jacksonville 27 26.4
60% 24 Buffalo 16 22.9, 13 Dallas 6 19.9
60% 9 Denver 20 24.2, 8 Cincinnati 17 21.1
55% 12 Chicago 26 23.0, 27 Tampa Bay 21 22.5
49% 23 Houston 34 21.1, 30 Tennessee 6 21.4
44% 29 Oakland 23 24.3, 16 San Diego 20 25.1
40% 19 Baltimore 20 22.0, 6 Pittsburgh 17 27.1
40% 14 Atlanta 20 21.2, 4 Carolina 13 26.7
39% 26 Washington 38 23.3, 21 Philadelphia 24 27.9
39% 25 Indianapolis 18 21.4, 22 Miami 12 25.7
32% 11 New York Jets 26 20.0, 1 New England 20 27.4
15% 20 St. Louis 23 10.3, 2 Seattle 17 27.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.35 8 1.01 1 1.42 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.2 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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