prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 6 Kansas City 23 30.0, 29 Oakland 17 15.1
85% 5 Pittsburgh 28 30.4, 32 Cleveland 12 18.8
80% 4 Carolina 38 32.0, 27 Tampa Bay 10 16.7
70% 7 Denver 27 28.6, 15 San Diego 20 18.3
69% 21 Houston 30 26.9, 31 Jacksonville 6 19.4
69% 8 Cincinnati 24 28.7, 18 Baltimore 16 17.3
66% 19 Indianapolis 30 28.2, 30 Tennessee 24 18.9
61% 26 San Francisco 19 19.6, 16 St. Louis 16 16.9
61% 22 Buffalo 22 21.5, 11 New York Jets 17 20.5
40% 25 Philadelphia 35 26.8, 20 New York Giants 30 31.0
40% 23 Washington 34 19.3, 14 Dallas 23 23.2
40% 2 Seattle 36 21.0, 3 Arizona 6 25.1
36% 17 Detroit 24 20.5, 12 Chicago 20 25.5
36% 10 Minnesota 20 20.2, 9 Green Bay 13 26.4
35% 28 New Orleans 20 23.4, 13 Atlanta 17 30.1
26% 24 Miami 20 19.6, 1 New England 10 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 10 0.78 3 0.89 2 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.9 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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