prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 9 Green Bay 35 26.2, 21 Washington 18 23.0
60% 7 Kansas City 30 22.7, 22 Houston 0 18.5
59% 1 Seattle 10 21.5, 10 Minnesota 9 20.3
40% 4 Pittsburgh 18 21.7, 5 Cincinnati 16 24.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.68 2 0.83 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.4 1.25
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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