prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 7 Arizona 26 28.7, 9 Green Bay 20 22.3
62% 2 New England 27 25.8, 3 Kansas City 20 19.2
60% 6 Denver 23 24.8, 5 Pittsburgh 16 22.4
56% 4 Carolina 31 22.8, 1 Seattle 24 21.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.78 3 1.62 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 4 2.4 1.66
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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