prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 6 Carolina 49 27.0, 7 Arizona 15 24.0
49% 5 Denver 20 24.4, 2 New England 18 24.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 1 1.65 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 2 1 1.1 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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