prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 2 Seattle 12 25.8, 18 Miami 10 15.2
69% 19 Philadelphia 29 28.6, 32 Cleveland 10 20.2
66% 5 Kansas City 33 26.0, 16 San Diego 27 17.7
64% 26 Houston 23 22.7, 17 Chicago 14 21.2
64% 14 Baltimore 13 24.3, 24 Buffalo 7 19.0
63% 10 Minnesota 25 23.3, 29 Tennessee 16 20.4
62% 4 Pittsburgh 38 24.8, 25 Washington 16 21.7
61% 21 San Francisco 28 21.1, 23 Los Angeles 0 17.1
61% 7 Green Bay 27 26.7, 31 Jacksonville 23 21.9
60% 3 Denver 21 24.0, 6 Carolina 20 20.5
52% 8 Cincinnati 23 21.0, 12 New York Jets 22 20.8
44% 1 New England 23 23.3, 9 Arizona 21 24.0
40% 30 Oakland 35 23.1, 27 New Orleans 34 29.1
38% 22 Detroit 39 20.6, 15 Indianapolis 35 25.7
38% 20 New York Giants 20 21.7, 13 Dallas 19 24.0
29% 28 Tampa Bay 31 18.8, 11 Atlanta 24 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.93 12 1.19 2 0.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.1 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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