prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 14 Miami 30 31.4, 32 Cleveland 24 15.2
68% 9 Green Bay 34 30.1, 21 Detroit 27 20.0
66% 2 New England 27 25.4, 15 Houston 0 14.4
64% 12 Baltimore 19 25.0, 31 Jacksonville 17 19.1
63% 13 Dallas 31 27.0, 27 Chicago 17 17.0
61% 16 Kansas City 24 25.8, 18 New York Jets 3 21.2
60% 6 Seattle 37 22.8, 20 San Francisco 18 14.0
56% 4 Denver 29 24.2, 11 Cincinnati 17 23.3
54% 19 Atlanta 45 29.3, 26 New Orleans 32 28.4
42% 7 Philadelphia 34 17.0, 1 Pittsburgh 3 18.6
39% 29 Oakland 17 22.6, 22 Tennessee 10 26.7
39% 23 Buffalo 33 17.3, 3 Arizona 18 24.2
39% 8 Minnesota 22 19.6, 5 Carolina 10 25.4
37% 25 Indianapolis 26 26.7, 10 San Diego 22 29.6
37% 24 Los Angeles 37 19.4, 28 Tampa Bay 32 22.8
15% 30 Washington 29 19.9, 17 New York Giants 27 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.19 11 0.87 1 1.36 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.2 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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