prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 6 Pittsburgh 31 29.6, 21 New York Jets 13 17.3
84% 3 New England 33 33.2, 32 Cleveland 13 17.1
80% 7 Green Bay 23 30.2, 19 New York Giants 16 19.9
78% 4 Minnesota 31 23.9, 20 Houston 13 9.1
63% 23 Indianapolis 29 32.1, 29 Chicago 23 25.0
62% 9 Dallas 28 20.4, 8 Cincinnati 14 18.3
60% 14 Arizona 33 26.2, 22 San Francisco 21 25.0
50% 26 Oakland 34 26.0, 17 San Diego 31 26.0
37% 10 Buffalo 30 15.7, 16 Los Angeles 19 17.6
35% 27 Tennessee 30 16.1, 18 Miami 17 24.0
35% 24 Detroit 24 17.4, 2 Philadelphia 23 26.4
31% 28 Washington 16 19.6, 15 Baltimore 10 27.4
24% 31 Tampa Bay 17 22.7, 12 Carolina 14 37.8
18% 13 Atlanta 23 17.1, 1 Denver 16 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.83 6 0.52 2 0.65 4 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.8 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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