prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 20 Tennessee 28 28.4, 32 Cleveland 26 18.1
83% 1 New England 35 26.8, 13 Cincinnati 17 15.5
80% 12 Arizona 28 28.8, 18 New York Jets 3 19.0
76% 10 Buffalo 45 27.4, 26 San Francisco 16 17.2
63% 6 Seattle 26 24.6, 9 Atlanta 24 18.5
62% 22 Houston 26 25.7, 23 Indianapolis 23 23.7
62% 16 New York Giants 27 21.5, 15 Baltimore 23 18.3
62% 11 Kansas City 26 24.7, 27 Oakland 10 22.9
61% 19 Detroit 31 25.1, 24 Los Angeles 28 19.8
40% 17 San Diego 21 21.8, 4 Denver 13 26.2
38% 28 New Orleans 41 29.7, 14 Carolina 38 31.5
37% 21 Washington 27 18.5, 2 Philadelphia 20 25.7
37% 8 Dallas 30 19.5, 7 Green Bay 16 24.3
34% 25 Miami 30 18.7, 5 Pittsburgh 15 26.3
32% 31 Jacksonville 17 21.2, 29 Chicago 16 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 11 0.72 2 1.29 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 10.1 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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