prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 13 Cincinnati 31 33.8, 32 Cleveland 17 18.5
85% 4 Denver 27 27.1, 19 Houston 9 13.8
83% 12 Green Bay 26 30.5, 28 Chicago 10 19.0
74% 11 Kansas City 27 31.6, 25 New Orleans 21 21.9
62% 23 New York Jets 24 21.3, 17 Baltimore 16 19.4
62% 1 New England 27 23.4, 7 Pittsburgh 16 21.7
61% 21 Detroit 20 26.7, 20 Washington 17 22.3
61% 8 Arizona 6 21.8, 5 Seattle 6 18.4
60% 3 Philadelphia 21 20.2, 2 Minnesota 10 16.8
43% 15 New York Giants 17 21.9, 26 Los Angeles 10 22.5
41% 27 Oakland 33 24.3, 30 Jacksonville 16 25.4
39% 29 Tampa Bay 34 25.4, 31 San Francisco 17 28.6
38% 24 Indianapolis 34 24.2, 22 Tennessee 26 26.0
38% 18 Miami 28 19.0, 10 Buffalo 25 21.4
33% 14 San Diego 33 21.7, 9 Atlanta 30 30.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 9 0.72 1 1.35 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 10.0 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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