prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 2 Denver 27 27.8, 14 San Diego 19 18.6
71% 25 Tennessee 36 26.3, 30 Jacksonville 22 18.5
69% 13 Cincinnati 27 26.2, 20 Washington 27 18.5
61% 23 Houston 20 24.0, 21 Detroit 13 21.8
61% 6 Dallas 29 21.6, 4 Philadelphia 23 18.9
60% 19 New York Jets 31 26.5, 32 Cleveland 28 22.9
60% 12 Atlanta 33 28.5, 11 Green Bay 32 24.1
60% 1 New England 41 22.9, 9 Buffalo 25 19.3
52% 10 Kansas City 30 24.7, 22 Indianapolis 14 24.5
45% 16 Carolina 30 24.0, 7 Arizona 20 24.8
40% 24 New Orleans 25 23.0, 3 Seattle 20 27.8
38% 26 Oakland 30 23.9, 28 Tampa Bay 24 25.4
37% 29 Chicago 20 15.9, 5 Minnesota 10 23.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.20 8 0.81 2 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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