prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 7 Kansas City 19 30.1, 30 Jacksonville 14 13.3
81% 6 Dallas 35 30.8, 32 Cleveland 10 19.4
77% 15 San Diego 43 28.1, 24 Tennessee 35 20.1
62% 18 Miami 27 23.3, 21 New York Jets 23 18.7
62% 11 Atlanta 43 29.6, 29 Tampa Bay 28 23.8
62% 5 Seattle 31 23.5, 10 Buffalo 25 17.7
61% 14 Carolina 13 25.2, 27 Los Angeles 10 22.6
60% 20 New Orleans 41 32.7, 31 San Francisco 23 28.1
40% 17 Baltimore 21 20.4, 8 Pittsburgh 14 23.8
39% 16 New York Giants 28 20.4, 3 Philadelphia 23 23.5
37% 25 Oakland 30 20.0, 2 Denver 20 25.2
17% 26 Indianapolis 31 24.2, 12 Green Bay 26 32.9
15% 23 Detroit 22 15.2, 4 Minnesota 16 26.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 8 1.02 1 1.30 4 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 9.0 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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