prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 17 Baltimore 28 31.5, 32 Cleveland 7 17.6
85% 8 Arizona 23 34.4, 31 San Francisco 20 15.7
61% 29 Tampa Bay 36 24.5, 28 Chicago 10 22.1
61% 14 New York Giants 21 23.3, 13 Cincinnati 20 21.3
61% 5 Philadelphia 24 27.6, 10 Atlanta 15 23.2
59% 3 Denver 25 26.1, 18 New Orleans 23 25.0
47% 24 Houston 24 21.4, 30 Jacksonville 21 21.8
39% 7 Kansas City 20 20.5, 12 Carolina 17 22.8
39% 2 Dallas 35 20.7, 9 Pittsburgh 30 22.6
38% 27 Tennessee 47 25.2, 15 Green Bay 25 26.6
38% 26 Los Angeles 9 17.6, 23 New York Jets 6 22.6
38% 20 Washington 26 19.3, 6 Minnesota 20 21.0
29% 19 Miami 31 21.3, 16 San Diego 24 28.0
27% 4 Seattle 31 15.9, 1 New England 24 25.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 8 0.61 2 0.00 2 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 9.2 0.65
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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