prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 21 Detroit 26 28.1, 30 Jacksonville 19 18.0
84% 1 New England 30 34.3, 31 San Francisco 17 18.8
80% 9 Pittsburgh 24 33.5, 32 Cleveland 9 21.8
76% 3 Dallas 27 26.4, 15 Baltimore 17 14.7
74% 12 New York Giants 22 27.1, 29 Chicago 16 17.1
65% 2 Seattle 26 23.7, 5 Philadelphia 15 17.8
61% 27 Oakland 27 25.2, 25 Houston 20 20.2
61% 24 Indianapolis 24 29.5, 22 Tennessee 17 25.0
60% 19 Washington 42 28.3, 23 Green Bay 24 24.5
60% 13 Carolina 23 29.9, 16 New Orleans 20 25.8
60% 7 Minnesota 30 21.5, 8 Arizona 24 18.2
46% 10 Buffalo 16 23.5, 14 Cincinnati 12 24.1
39% 17 Miami 14 17.2, 20 Los Angeles 10 19.2
15% 28 Tampa Bay 19 15.3, 6 Kansas City 17 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.88 6 1.36 3 1.30 3 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 9.7 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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