prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 10 Buffalo 28 31.2, 30 Jacksonville 21 16.3
84% 3 Dallas 31 28.1, 17 Washington 26 17.8
83% 15 Miami 31 29.5, 31 San Francisco 24 17.6
80% 13 New York Giants 27 29.0, 32 Cleveland 13 20.4
78% 1 New England 22 27.3, 24 New York Jets 17 16.9
75% 16 New Orleans 49 27.0, 22 Los Angeles 21 18.5
61% 18 Baltimore 19 22.0, 14 Cincinnati 14 20.0
61% 11 Atlanta 38 26.1, 8 Arizona 19 23.9
61% 9 Pittsburgh 28 28.0, 25 Indianapolis 7 26.6
59% 20 Tennessee 27 23.6, 29 Chicago 21 22.5
57% 19 San Diego 21 25.3, 26 Houston 13 24.6
50% 23 Oakland 35 24.7, 12 Carolina 32 24.6
42% 21 Detroit 16 21.5, 6 Minnesota 13 22.5
36% 28 Tampa Bay 14 18.9, 2 Seattle 5 25.7
35% 7 Kansas City 30 16.0, 4 Denver 27 22.4
34% 27 Green Bay 27 21.5, 5 Philadelphia 13 31.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.34 6 0.79 3 1.29 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.9 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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