prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 1 New England 26 30.9, 28 Los Angeles 10 11.9
74% 2 Seattle 40 26.7, 14 Carolina 7 17.5
73% 5 Pittsburgh 24 25.6, 12 New York Giants 14 18.3
70% 3 Denver 20 27.4, 30 Jacksonville 10 18.2
66% 20 Green Bay 21 28.4, 27 Houston 13 20.9
64% 10 Arizona 31 27.8, 19 Washington 23 20.3
63% 29 Chicago 26 27.9, 31 San Francisco 6 22.8
60% 18 Baltimore 38 21.4, 16 Miami 6 18.4
54% 13 Cincinnati 32 21.7, 8 Philadelphia 14 21.3
47% 23 Oakland 38 25.3, 11 Buffalo 24 25.7
39% 26 Indianapolis 41 22.7, 24 New York Jets 10 24.7
39% 7 Kansas City 29 20.2, 9 Atlanta 28 24.9
39% 4 Dallas 17 20.6, 6 Minnesota 15 22.2
31% 25 Tampa Bay 28 21.8, 17 San Diego 21 29.0
21% 22 Detroit 28 23.3, 15 New Orleans 13 30.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.94 9 0.87 3 0.88 1 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 10.0 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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