prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 15 Buffalo 33 34.6, 32 Cleveland 13 17.7
85% 3 Dallas 26 27.3, 24 Tampa Bay 20 15.9
85% 2 Seattle 24 27.9, 28 Los Angeles 3 11.1
79% 8 Atlanta 41 36.0, 31 San Francisco 13 19.0
64% 26 Houston 21 24.4, 30 Jacksonville 20 18.0
62% 13 New York Giants 17 23.4, 18 Detroit 6 19.0
61% 1 New England 16 23.8, 4 Denver 3 22.5
60% 14 Green Bay 30 26.6, 29 Chicago 27 22.4
60% 10 Baltimore 27 23.2, 12 Philadelphia 26 19.3
50% 22 Miami 34 20.5, 27 New York Jets 13 20.5
50% 5 Pittsburgh 24 20.7, 9 Cincinnati 20 20.7
40% 25 Oakland 19 26.2, 20 San Diego 16 29.6
40% 17 Carolina 26 23.2, 16 Washington 15 26.7
34% 21 New Orleans 48 24.1, 11 Arizona 41 30.5
31% 23 Indianapolis 34 19.7, 7 Minnesota 6 27.2
20% 19 Tennessee 19 17.4, 6 Kansas City 17 25.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.25 8 0.80 2 0.63 3 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.8 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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