prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Seattle 26 28.0, 25 Detroit 6 16.1
81% 5 Pittsburgh 30 27.0, 19 Miami 12 18.0
64% 10 Green Bay 38 25.9, 9 New York Giants 13 20.2
47% 26 Houston 27 22.4, 23 Oakland 14 22.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 1 1.56 0 0.00 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.8 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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