prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 34 31.3, 25 Houston 16 11.9
61% 8 Green Bay 34 26.5, 3 Dallas 31 24.9
61% 7 Atlanta 36 25.1, 2 Seattle 20 22.8
40% 5 Pittsburgh 18 19.2, 6 Kansas City 16 21.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 1.10 0 0.00 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.7 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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