prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 13 Seattle 12 30.9, 30 San Francisco 9 13.1
66% 1 Baltimore 24 25.0, 29 Cleveland 10 3.7
64% 19 Tampa Bay 29 26.2, 25 Chicago 7 18.9
63% 14 Oakland 45 21.9, 21 New York Jets 20 12.2
62% 9 Pittsburgh 26 20.7, 12 Minnesota 9 15.9
62% 4 Kansas City 27 20.0, 6 Philadelphia 20 11.5
62% 3 Carolina 9 16.2, 16 Buffalo 3 6.8
61% 24 Arizona 16 43.9, 32 Indianapolis 13 37.4
61% 15 Detroit 24 20.3, 18 New York Giants 10 17.7
60% 10 Atlanta 34 19.8, 7 Green Bay 23 16.7
54% 11 Denver 42 16.3, 5 Dallas 17 15.4
45% 20 New England 36 37.4, 23 New Orleans 20 39.4
38% 31 Houston 13 23.4, 27 Cincinnati 9 31.0
38% 26 Tennessee 37 10.5, 8 Jacksonville 16 23.7
38% 17 Miami 19 23.4, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 17 26.3
37% 28 Washington 27 8.6, 2 Los Angeles Rams 20 26.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 13 1.11 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.8 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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