prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 13 Green Bay 27 28.1, 23 Cincinnati 24 15.4
63% 5 Kansas City 24 27.5, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 10 19.8
62% 10 Los Angeles Rams 41 20.8, 29 San Francisco 39 12.4
62% 6 New England 36 30.8, 26 Houston 33 15.1
61% 31 Indianapolis 31 33.6, 32 Cleveland 28 28.0
61% 19 Philadelphia 27 29.2, 27 New York Giants 24 23.1
61% 15 Minnesota 34 19.7, 16 Tampa Bay 17 16.1
45% 18 Tennessee 33 18.3, 8 Seattle 27 19.5
39% 28 New York Jets 20 20.9, 17 Miami 6 25.2
39% 24 Jacksonville 44 11.6, 3 Baltimore 7 18.2
39% 21 Washington 27 24.2, 11 Oakland 10 27.7
39% 14 Buffalo 26 15.1, 1 Denver 16 19.0
39% 9 Atlanta 30 17.4, 7 Detroit 26 21.2
38% 20 Dallas 28 20.6, 12 Arizona 17 28.3
28% 25 New Orleans 34 14.6, 2 Carolina 13 25.9
21% 30 Chicago 23 15.2, 4 Pittsburgh 17 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 12 0.81 2 0.00 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.3 0.68
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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