prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 4 Philadelphia 34 27.5, 15 Washington 24 20.0
71% 5 Buffalo 30 24.2, 22 Tampa Bay 27 15.2
67% 12 Minnesota 24 24.5, 25 Baltimore 16 16.4
66% 13 Los Angeles Rams 33 27.4, 27 Arizona 0 18.8
65% 1 New England 23 31.2, 11 Atlanta 7 23.5
64% 17 Miami 31 20.3, 26 New York Jets 28 13.8
64% 7 Pittsburgh 29 21.4, 14 Cincinnati 14 15.5
63% 24 Tennessee 12 28.2, 32 Cleveland 9 22.4
61% 20 Dallas 40 28.5, 30 San Francisco 10 24.2
61% 18 Jacksonville 27 28.3, 31 Indianapolis 0 23.9
61% 2 Seattle 24 20.8, 16 New York Giants 7 18.9
48% 19 Los Angeles Chargers 21 22.7, 6 Denver 0 22.9
39% 29 Oakland 31 21.1, 3 Kansas City 30 26.4
39% 28 Chicago 17 19.2, 9 Carolina 3 22.2
39% 8 New Orleans 26 25.7, 10 Green Bay 17 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 12 1.19 2 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 9.5 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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