prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 3 Philadelphia 33 33.7, 30 San Francisco 10 16.6
82% 15 Cincinnati 24 29.1, 31 Indianapolis 23 17.5
77% 2 Seattle 41 28.3, 23 Houston 38 17.6
76% 9 Buffalo 34 27.7, 28 Oakland 14 17.7
76% 6 New Orleans 20 28.8, 26 Chicago 12 17.3
72% 12 Minnesota 33 26.2, 32 Cleveland 16 16.8
69% 1 New England 21 29.5, 17 Los Angeles Chargers 13 19.0
65% 5 Kansas City 29 25.5, 7 Denver 19 18.7
61% 24 Baltimore 40 21.3, 18 Miami 0 19.1
61% 13 Atlanta 25 22.2, 25 New York Jets 20 20.4
46% 10 Carolina 17 21.7, 27 Tampa Bay 3 22.2
46% 4 Pittsburgh 20 22.3, 20 Detroit 15 22.7
44% 14 Dallas 33 25.7, 19 Washington 19 26.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 4 1.57 4 1.33 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 10 8.9 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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