prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 7 New Orleans 30 30.7, 27 Tampa Bay 10 20.1
63% 2 Philadelphia 51 25.6, 9 Denver 23 19.4
61% 28 Arizona 20 25.5, 31 San Francisco 10 23.2
61% 17 Jacksonville 23 22.4, 15 Cincinnati 7 16.8
61% 11 Carolina 20 22.7, 14 Atlanta 17 19.6
60% 8 Los Angeles Rams 51 21.8, 19 New York Giants 17 20.3
57% 13 Dallas 28 25.5, 5 Kansas City 17 24.2
56% 21 Tennessee 23 22.1, 18 Baltimore 20 21.2
39% 29 Oakland 27 20.8, 26 Miami 24 24.3
39% 23 New York Jets 34 17.2, 6 Buffalo 21 21.0
34% 30 Indianapolis 20 24.1, 25 Houston 14 35.7
32% 20 Detroit 30 22.7, 12 Green Bay 17 30.4
23% 22 Washington 17 19.2, 4 Seattle 14 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.74 8 0.80 1 0.00 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.3 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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