prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 New Orleans 34 31.6, 19 Washington 31 19.6
84% 1 New England 33 30.7, 27 Oakland 8 20.4
76% 5 Pittsburgh 40 24.9, 21 Tennessee 17 16.1
67% 12 Jacksonville 19 29.2, 32 Cleveland 7 17.8
61% 29 Houston 31 27.7, 24 Arizona 21 24.8
61% 15 Los Angeles Chargers 54 24.6, 18 Buffalo 24 20.2
53% 3 Philadelphia 37 25.7, 11 Dallas 9 25.3
52% 9 Minnesota 24 21.3, 4 Los Angeles Rams 7 21.0
40% 17 Detroit 27 21.9, 20 Chicago 24 23.1
39% 25 Tampa Bay 30 21.3, 26 Miami 20 23.4
39% 16 Cincinnati 20 20.1, 23 Denver 17 23.2
38% 28 New York Giants 12 20.2, 7 Kansas City 9 26.2
36% 14 Baltimore 23 21.8, 13 Green Bay 0 27.0
34% 10 Atlanta 34 18.6, 6 Seattle 31 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.90 9 0.53 1 1.31 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.1 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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