prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 15 Cincinnati 30 29.2, 32 Cleveland 16 14.3
85% 1 New England 35 33.4, 27 Miami 17 14.2
84% 2 Philadelphia 31 29.6, 18 Chicago 3 16.5
83% 8 Baltimore 23 29.1, 28 Houston 16 18.8
75% 11 Atlanta 34 26.5, 19 Tampa Bay 20 19.0
71% 4 Pittsburgh 31 26.7, 16 Green Bay 28 18.1
69% 9 Seattle 24 28.5, 31 San Francisco 13 20.0
62% 20 Washington 20 26.8, 24 New York Giants 10 21.1
61% 29 Oakland 21 25.6, 23 Denver 14 23.9
61% 7 Carolina 35 20.4, 21 New York Jets 27 17.6
61% 5 Los Angeles Rams 26 25.2, 3 New Orleans 20 23.6
54% 22 Tennessee 20 25.5, 30 Indianapolis 16 25.0
47% 26 Arizona 27 20.6, 12 Jacksonville 24 21.2
46% 6 Minnesota 30 22.9, 17 Detroit 23 23.4
39% 13 Los Angeles Chargers 28 22.5, 14 Dallas 6 25.5
34% 25 Buffalo 16 18.6, 10 Kansas City 10 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.62 7 1.14 2 1.37 4 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.8 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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