prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 4 Pittsburgh 28 33.2, 32 Cleveland 24 11.8
85% 1 New England 26 33.4, 28 New York Jets 6 13.8
84% 6 Los Angeles Chargers 30 27.8, 27 Oakland 10 15.9
71% 5 Minnesota 23 23.5, 14 Chicago 10 12.5
62% 30 Indianapolis 22 28.9, 31 Houston 13 24.6
60% 26 Detroit 35 28.8, 17 Green Bay 11 26.0
60% 12 Atlanta 22 23.4, 9 Carolina 10 21.8
57% 11 Kansas City 27 22.5, 19 Denver 24 21.5
50% 23 Tennessee 15 22.9, 15 Jacksonville 10 22.9
44% 25 New York Giants 18 22.0, 16 Washington 10 22.8
39% 20 Buffalo 22 19.6, 22 Miami 16 22.9
35% 21 Tampa Bay 31 22.8, 3 New Orleans 24 28.9
28% 13 Dallas 6 19.7, 2 Philadelphia 0 29.4
26% 29 San Francisco 34 16.9, 8 Los Angeles Rams 13 30.9
24% 18 Arizona 26 16.4, 10 Seattle 24 26.1
17% 24 Cincinnati 31 14.2, 7 Baltimore 27 26.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.23 5 0.97 4 0.34 4 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 11.0 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net