prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 35 31.8, 19 Tennessee 14 15.0
67% 2 Philadelphia 15 26.3, 8 Atlanta 10 19.7
60% 3 Minnesota 29 25.6, 6 New Orleans 24 22.9
27% 15 Jacksonville 45 17.4, 4 Pittsburgh 42 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 2 1.57 1 0.00 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.8 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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