prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 18 Miami 28 32.9, 30 Oakland 20 21.1
66% 3 Kansas City 38 34.2, 26 San Francisco 27 20.4
62% 2 Baltimore 27 26.0, 14 Denver 14 15.7
61% 20 Washington 31 24.9, 22 Green Bay 17 22.1
61% 17 Seattle 24 23.7, 13 Dallas 13 19.7
61% 15 Chicago 16 23.3, 29 Arizona 14 18.1
61% 11 Philadelphia 20 26.8, 19 Indianapolis 16 19.5
61% 10 Carolina 31 24.0, 16 Cincinnati 21 19.3
61% 1 Los Angeles Rams 35 18.5, 8 Los Angeles Chargers 23 12.4
39% 28 Cleveland 21 13.5, 7 New York Jets 17 20.2
39% 23 New York Giants 27 18.8, 25 Houston 22 24.0
39% 21 New Orleans 43 23.4, 9 Atlanta 37 28.9
37% 31 Detroit 26 28.5, 4 New England 10 40.1
37% 24 Pittsburgh 30 23.9, 12 Tampa Bay 27 32.4
19% 27 Tennessee 9 14.8, 5 Jacksonville 6 29.3
17% 32 Buffalo 27 16.8, 6 Minnesota 6 37.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 13 1.00 1 1.30 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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