prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 Green Bay 33 30.2, 30 San Francisco 30 20.8
66% 21 Minnesota 27 26.6, 29 Arizona 17 19.0
63% 27 Houston 20 23.8, 24 Buffalo 13 19.2
63% 15 Seattle 27 29.8, 32 Oakland 3 23.8
62% 12 Los Angeles Chargers 38 27.6, 31 Cleveland 14 22.4
61% 17 New York Jets 42 25.1, 18 Indianapolis 34 20.5
60% 23 Atlanta 34 32.2, 28 Tampa Bay 29 27.9
60% 5 Los Angeles Rams 23 28.0, 25 Denver 20 22.8
60% 2 Baltimore 21 21.0, 13 Tennessee 0 17.8
58% 16 Dallas 40 19.8, 9 Jacksonville 7 18.5
57% 10 Philadelphia 34 22.7, 20 New York Giants 13 21.7
55% 4 New England 43 26.5, 3 Kansas City 40 25.7
48% 7 Pittsburgh 28 26.6, 11 Cincinnati 21 27.0
40% 19 Washington 23 21.4, 8 Carolina 17 22.8
38% 22 Miami 31 17.5, 1 Chicago 28 22.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.35 10 1.30 1 1.27 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 12 9.2 1.31
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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