prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 10 Los Angeles Chargers 20 27.1, 15 Tennessee 19 17.8
64% 28 Tampa Bay 26 30.3, 31 Cleveland 23 23.1
62% 21 Indianapolis 37 24.8, 22 Buffalo 5 19.0
62% 5 Kansas City 45 33.0, 14 Cincinnati 10 22.7
60% 24 Atlanta 23 27.9, 20 New York Giants 20 24.2
60% 7 Los Angeles Rams 39 28.6, 30 San Francisco 10 23.5
40% 25 Denver 45 21.9, 27 Arizona 10 24.7
40% 17 Washington 20 18.0, 2 Dallas 17 19.6
40% 12 Carolina 21 20.9, 11 Philadelphia 17 24.6
40% 4 New England 38 22.1, 6 Chicago 31 24.5
39% 29 Detroit 32 23.4, 23 Miami 21 28.7
39% 19 Minnesota 37 21.7, 16 New York Jets 17 26.6
36% 26 Houston 20 19.9, 18 Jacksonville 7 26.5
34% 9 New Orleans 24 20.4, 1 Baltimore 23 27.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 13 0.62 1 1.26 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 8.8 0.68
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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