prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 29 San Francisco 34 32.7, 32 Oakland 3 23.7
79% 1 New England 31 32.3, 17 Green Bay 17 22.0
74% 4 Kansas City 37 33.4, 30 Cleveland 21 20.7
71% 8 Carolina 42 32.7, 27 Tampa Bay 28 21.1
66% 13 Minnesota 24 29.0, 25 Detroit 9 20.4
62% 5 New Orleans 45 30.2, 10 Los Angeles Rams 35 23.7
61% 11 Chicago 41 21.9, 26 Buffalo 9 16.9
60% 28 Miami 13 25.8, 24 New York Jets 6 24.3
38% 22 Atlanta 38 22.2, 16 Washington 14 26.6
38% 7 Pittsburgh 23 20.5, 3 Baltimore 16 24.9
37% 19 Houston 19 22.0, 14 Denver 17 27.4
34% 12 Los Angeles Chargers 25 19.8, 2 Seattle 17 25.8
26% 18 Tennessee 28 13.4, 6 Dallas 14 23.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 8 0.80 5 1.06 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.8 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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