prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 Kansas City 26 36.4, 30 Arizona 14 14.6
80% 10 Los Angeles Chargers 20 33.8, 32 Oakland 6 19.4
75% 18 Green Bay 31 29.2, 27 Miami 12 21.4
74% 7 Chicago 34 29.1, 24 Detroit 22 18.2
69% 15 Indianapolis 29 27.7, 22 Jacksonville 26 20.5
60% 12 Los Angeles Rams 36 24.9, 6 Seattle 31 21.1
60% 5 New Orleans 51 31.8, 23 Cincinnati 14 26.6
60% 3 Pittsburgh 52 26.9, 8 Carolina 21 22.4
40% 21 New York Giants 27 22.2, 25 San Francisco 23 25.2
40% 20 Washington 16 25.3, 28 Tampa Bay 3 26.7
39% 11 Dallas 27 18.0, 9 Philadelphia 20 22.4
37% 14 Tennessee 34 20.1, 1 New England 10 25.5
34% 29 Buffalo 41 17.2, 26 New York Jets 10 25.2
32% 31 Cleveland 28 23.1, 16 Atlanta 16 29.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 10 0.64 2 1.35 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.4 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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