prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 5 Baltimore 34 33.1, 32 Oakland 17 12.4
84% 6 Los Angeles Chargers 45 31.6, 31 Arizona 10 13.3
81% 1 New Orleans 31 37.2, 21 Atlanta 17 20.6
78% 15 Indianapolis 27 31.0, 28 Miami 24 20.7
70% 9 Dallas 31 23.4, 19 Washington 23 15.2
64% 3 New England 27 29.1, 25 New York Jets 13 22.3
63% 13 Minnesota 24 26.2, 14 Green Bay 17 21.9
63% 11 Philadelphia 25 25.1, 20 New York Giants 22 19.8
60% 29 Tampa Bay 27 28.7, 24 San Francisco 9 27.1
60% 18 Houston 34 23.1, 12 Tennessee 17 19.7
60% 8 Chicago 23 25.9, 23 Detroit 16 22.7
56% 26 Buffalo 24 20.5, 22 Jacksonville 21 19.6
45% 7 Seattle 30 23.7, 16 Carolina 27 24.4
40% 17 Denver 24 22.4, 2 Pittsburgh 17 27.0
38% 30 Cleveland 35 22.7, 27 Cincinnati 20 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 8 1.22 2 1.35 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 12 10.0 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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