prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 5 Seattle 43 29.7, 24 San Francisco 16 17.3
81% 18 Houston 29 28.3, 30 Cleveland 13 18.7
78% 3 New England 24 28.8, 11 Minnesota 10 20.2
68% 7 Kansas City 40 36.2, 32 Oakland 33 20.9
66% 14 Tennessee 26 25.5, 26 New York Jets 22 17.9
63% 28 Miami 21 23.2, 25 Buffalo 17 19.0
62% 12 Philadelphia 28 24.0, 20 Washington 13 18.3
60% 13 Denver 24 26.9, 29 Cincinnati 10 24.0
60% 10 Los Angeles Rams 30 29.6, 23 Detroit 16 26.4
60% 6 Baltimore 26 25.7, 21 Atlanta 16 22.8
47% 22 Jacksonville 6 24.5, 15 Indianapolis 0 24.8
41% 27 Tampa Bay 24 26.6, 17 Carolina 17 28.4
40% 19 New York Giants 30 21.7, 8 Chicago 27 23.6
39% 9 Dallas 13 22.4, 1 New Orleans 10 28.2
39% 4 Los Angeles Chargers 33 22.2, 2 Pittsburgh 30 27.0
16% 31 Arizona 20 16.2, 16 Green Bay 17 31.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 10 1.12 1 1.28 3 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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