prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 5 Seattle 21 25.9, 14 Minnesota 7 17.4
79% 3 Los Angeles Chargers 26 33.6, 29 Cincinnati 21 18.1
70% 16 Green Bay 34 29.5, 22 Atlanta 20 23.1
66% 1 New Orleans 28 34.5, 25 Tampa Bay 14 22.4
65% 13 Tennessee 30 23.4, 21 Jacksonville 9 17.0
62% 7 Dallas 29 23.0, 12 Philadelphia 23 17.9
60% 9 Chicago 15 28.5, 10 Los Angeles Rams 6 25.7
60% 8 Kansas City 27 30.5, 6 Baltimore 24 23.8
58% 23 Detroit 17 23.4, 31 Arizona 3 22.2
40% 28 New York Jets 27 19.8, 24 Buffalo 23 22.7
40% 26 San Francisco 20 22.1, 11 Denver 14 24.2
40% 19 New York Giants 40 20.8, 20 Washington 16 22.7
40% 15 Indianapolis 24 24.5, 18 Houston 21 26.8
39% 30 Cleveland 26 22.6, 17 Carolina 20 27.0
23% 27 Miami 34 20.4, 2 New England 33 29.0
18% 32 Oakland 24 19.3, 4 Pittsburgh 21 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.71 11 0.88 2 0.64 2 0.61 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.6 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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