prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 6 Baltimore 20 29.7, 25 Tampa Bay 12 17.3
83% 14 Minnesota 41 27.4, 28 Miami 17 17.8
82% 21 Atlanta 40 28.3, 31 Arizona 14 18.2
70% 30 Cincinnati 30 29.0, 32 Oakland 16 21.4
65% 8 Chicago 24 27.5, 16 Green Bay 17 20.2
63% 1 New Orleans 12 32.5, 19 Carolina 9 23.5
60% 15 Indianapolis 23 23.4, 5 Dallas 0 21.9
60% 7 Pittsburgh 17 27.6, 2 New England 10 25.4
56% 27 Buffalo 14 21.4, 22 Detroit 13 20.6
55% 18 Houston 29 25.0, 26 New York Jets 22 24.1
40% 20 Washington 16 19.5, 23 Jacksonville 13 23.1
40% 13 Philadelphia 30 22.9, 12 Los Angeles Rams 23 29.5
40% 10 Tennessee 17 20.3, 17 New York Giants 0 22.5
40% 4 Los Angeles Chargers 29 26.9, 9 Kansas City 28 31.6
36% 24 San Francisco 26 20.1, 3 Seattle 23 25.4
27% 29 Cleveland 17 16.3, 11 Denver 16 26.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.79 10 0.80 1 0.00 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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