prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 New England 24 29.4, 25 Buffalo 12 13.8
83% 8 Dallas 27 26.5, 26 Tampa Bay 20 17.3
71% 12 Indianapolis 28 27.6, 19 New York Giants 27 19.8
66% 1 New Orleans 31 32.0, 4 Pittsburgh 28 22.1
64% 9 Tennessee 25 23.1, 20 Washington 16 15.8
63% 11 Philadelphia 32 26.5, 17 Houston 30 20.7
61% 14 Los Angeles Rams 31 29.3, 31 Arizona 9 20.8
60% 28 Cleveland 26 25.5, 29 Cincinnati 18 22.4
60% 16 Green Bay 44 26.0, 27 New York Jets 38 24.7
60% 7 Chicago 14 24.8, 24 San Francisco 9 21.1
60% 3 Seattle 38 29.4, 10 Kansas City 31 26.4
56% 13 Minnesota 27 22.2, 22 Detroit 9 21.4
40% 23 Jacksonville 17 20.9, 30 Miami 7 23.3
39% 21 Atlanta 24 24.1, 18 Carolina 10 28.7
36% 32 Oakland 27 19.3, 15 Denver 14 25.9
36% 6 Baltimore 22 19.7, 5 Los Angeles Chargers 10 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.78 12 1.08 1 1.41 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.4 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net