prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 5 Baltimore 47 24.8, 19 Buffalo 3 16.8
79% 1 New England 27 32.3, 31 Houston 20 17.4
77% 8 Minnesota 24 26.7, 29 San Francisco 16 17.2
65% 2 Philadelphia 18 25.7, 11 Atlanta 12 19.0
63% 10 Carolina 16 23.8, 12 Dallas 8 19.7
62% 23 Miami 27 22.9, 21 Tennessee 20 19.6
62% 18 Green Bay 24 24.6, 17 Chicago 23 19.5
53% 15 Denver 27 22.6, 6 Seattle 24 22.3
38% 22 Cincinnati 34 19.8, 25 Indianapolis 23 23.8
38% 16 Jacksonville 20 20.2, 14 New York Giants 15 21.9
37% 30 Los Angeles Rams 33 18.4, 28 Oakland 13 23.3
36% 27 New York Jets 48 19.7, 26 Detroit 17 25.0
36% 9 Kansas City 38 18.6, 4 Los Angeles Chargers 28 23.3
35% 32 Cleveland 21 18.2, 3 Pittsburgh 21 26.9
35% 20 Washington 24 19.7, 13 Arizona 6 24.6
31% 24 Tampa Bay 48 19.9, 7 New Orleans 40 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.89 12 0.52 2 1.28 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.6 0.76
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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