prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
66% 1 Baltimore 23 29.7, 26 Arizona 17 2.7
64% 2 New England 43 47.2, 32 Miami 0 16.7
61% 16 Houston 13 34.9, 27 Jacksonville 12 25.0
61% 13 Buffalo 28 23.8, 28 New York Giants 14 20.6
61% 12 Seattle 28 28.9, 24 Pittsburgh 26 25.0
61% 11 Los Angeles Rams 27 29.2, 8 New Orleans 9 26.1
61% 7 Kansas City 28 25.6, 18 Oakland 10 19.1
61% 5 Dallas 31 24.9, 19 Washington 21 19.9
61% 4 Green Bay 21 14.5, 6 Minnesota 16 7.7
59% 10 San Francisco 41 20.7, 20 Cincinnati 17 18.3
39% 31 Cleveland 23 30.1, 29 New York Jets 3 40.2
39% 30 Tampa Bay 20 28.4, 22 Carolina 14 37.2
39% 25 Atlanta 24 25.5, 14 Philadelphia 20 30.3
39% 21 Detroit 13 23.0, 9 Los Angeles Chargers 10 26.8
39% 17 Chicago 16 18.9, 23 Denver 14 23.1
37% 15 Indianapolis 19 12.9, 3 Tennessee 17 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 15 0.97 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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